The global TV and streaming market is estimated to be worth $700 billion globally in 2023, with $164 billion earmarked for investment in programming, according to a Mipcom presentation last Wednesday by Omdia research analyst Tim Westcott.
The $700 billion figure is based on combined revenues from advertising, subscription and public revenue, Westcott told audiences gathered at the leading TV confab.
The figure is up 77% from $394 billion total in 2010.
The results are part of research, soon to be published, by Omdia on the global programming market, Westcott told Variety, following the 30-minute event.
“We have estimated the size of the TV programming market worldwide,” he said. “We did this research from the ground up, estimating spending by broadcasters, channels and platforms in 119 countries. Importantly, we are looking at commissioning spend, and of course a lot of the deficit between this spend and total production value is being financed by producers and distributors.”
From this $700 billion global tally, online subscriptions are expected to make up 47% of the total compared to 45% in 2010; advertising accounts for 48%, compared to 45% in 2010; public revenues will drop to 5% from 10% in 2010, the report said.
America represents 43% of this figure, with Asia and Oceania accounting for 25% and Western Europe 18%.
In the U.S., programming investments are down by only 1% from 2022, according to Omdia.
“In terms of growth overall, investment is now fairly stable. In 2023, we expect worldwide spend to go up overall 1 percent from the year before,” he said. “The streamers have been thebig driver of growth and programming spend over the past 5-10 years, especially Netflix. But at Omdia we are expecting subscription numbers to reach a plateau next year.”
And there are also cut backs to contend with.
Westcott added: “The studios, in particular, have been competing with the streamers by investing in content. Certain other players like Sky and RTL have been investing too. But other companies have been under pressure to improve profits and decrease programming spend. Disney and WarnerBros. Discovery are both cutting costs, including programming. There is growth in online advertising, but not traditional linear TV advertising.”
There are other challenges ahead. This includes a decrease in the number of scripted and unscripted commissions at the U.S. networks.
The number of shows that have launched so far this season 2023/24, is 43 compared to 179 in 2019.
“The number will increase with new shows launching later in the season,” he said. “The aim was to show the strikes have disrupted the new season and lead to threadbare schedules on the network as far as new seasons, episodes are concerned. The trend from 2019/2020 shows that 2022/23 shows the networks have already been reducing the number of new shows.”
In the U.S, in 2022, linear viewing represented just 45% of total viewing and only 48% in the U.K.
In some European countries like Italy, linear TV accounted for 80% of viewing. In Spain, it accounted for 73%, the report stated.
According to Omdia, the major groups in the U.S. still invest more in legacy linear channels than in online programming. And U.S. producers still top the list of the top 20 TV producers.
The five biggest groups by TV production and distribution revenues are still the U.S. studios, like in 2021, according to the report. But NBCUniversal overtook Walt Disney to occupy the top spot with revenues of $8.71 billion for 2021/22. NBC Universal showed a 15% gain in revenues, whilst the Walt Disney Co was down by 27%, the report said.
Banijay was the largest of Europe’s three groups to make it into the top ten. France has become the biggest global market in terms of production company acquisitions, outpacing the U.K.
Along with the changes, new money has been found for investing in programming.
“There is still money being spent on commissioning,” Westcott said. “But big TV productions are increasingly greenlit by producers. They are not waiting for the networks to greenlight. We have reached a plateau in investment by commissioners, but more of the deficit is being covered by producers and distributors. It’s beginning more to follow the film model. Coproduction is a trend and one of the models producers are exploring is coproduction.”
It’s a trend that’s been going on for a while.
Westcott added: “Children’s programming was affected first, in the move away from full commissioning, but now it’s even affecting scripted which used to be fully funded. It’s a trend that has been developing over a long time. In the U.S. it’s different because the biggest producers own the biggest networks. For years, TV has moved more to a cinema model where producers have to raise the money to get the show made as they do in independent film.”