2024 Oscars Best Picture Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:


2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

Teorema/High Frequency Entertainment/Screen Capital/MUBI/Case Study Films

Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 27, 2023): Is there room for two “American” movies in the best picture category?

MGM’s “American Fiction” continues its run of winning Audience Awards with three in-hand thus far from Toronto, Mill Valley and Middleburg Film Festivals. Could it be a challenger to the presumed frontrunners — “Oppenheimer” by Christopher Nolan and “Killers of the Flower Moon” by Martin Scorsese?

With a stacked race this year, anything is possible. That’s why we should mention we still have yet to see a documentary feature nominated for best picture. Matthew Heineman’s emotionally moving “American Symphony” would make a fantastic first feature in that realm. Acquired by Netflix following its premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, the story of musician Jon Batiste navigating his wife’s illness, along with his career, is the type of movie that can excite voters (if enough of them give it a fair shake).

Michel Franco’s “Memory,” which premiered in Venice, has a North American distributor, with a December qualifying run in its future. With Oscar-winner Jessica Chastain and overdue veteran Peter Sarsgaard, we’ll see if it can make moves with an interim agreement in its pocket, allowing the actors to promote.

Also noteworthy, what will become of Jeff Nichols’ “The Bikeriders” is still unknown. Whether it will drop this calendar year remains in flux as we await a resolution between the AMPTP and SAG-AFTRA.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

Listed producer credits are not final and are subject to change. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
    Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
  2. American Fiction” (MGM)
    Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson, Nikos Karamigios, Ben LeClair
  3. Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
    Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
  4. Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
    David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner
  5. Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone
  6. The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
    Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
  7. Maestro” (Netflix)
    Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg
  8. Past Lives” (A24)
    David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon
  9. May December” (Netflix)
    Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon
  10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
    Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg

Next in Line

  1. The Zone of Interest” (A24)
    Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson
  2. Origin” (Neon)
    Ava DuVernay, Paul Garnes
  3. The Iron Claw” (A24)
    Sean Durkin, Juliette Howell, Angus Lamont, Tessa Ross
  4. Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Ben Affleck, Madison Ainley, Jason Michael Berman, Matt Damon, David Ellison, Peter Guber, Jeff Robinov, Jesse Sisgold, Jon Weinbach
  5. The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
    Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey
  6. Ferrari” (Neon)
    Monika Bacardi, Thomas Hayslip, Andrea Iervolino, John Lesher, Michael Mann, Laura Rister, Thorsten Schumacher, Lars Sylvest, P.J. van Sandwijk, Gareth West
  7. Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie
  8. The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
    Olivier Delbosc
  9. Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
    Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
  10. American Symphony” (Netflix)
    Lauren Domino, Joedan Okun

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.” (Lionsgate)
    Julie Ansell, James L. Brooks, Kelly Fremon Craig
  2. All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Sarah Harvey
  3. Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
    Mark Huffam, Ridley Scott, Kevin J. Walsh
  4. Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Alan Greisman, Hannah Leader, Rick Nicita, Robert Stillman, Meg Thomson
  5. Priscilla” (A24)
    Sofia Coppola, Youree Henley, Lorenzo Mieli
  6. Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
    Craig Gillespie, Aaron Ryder, Teddy Schwarzman
  7. Rustin” (Netflix)
    Bruce Cohen, Tonia Davis
  8. Fair Play” (Netflix)
    Leopold Hughes, Ben LeClair, Allan Mandelbaum, Tim White, Trevor White
  9. BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
    Fraser Ash, Niv Fichman, Kevin Krikst, Matthew Miller
  10. The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
    Sarah Green, Brian Kavanaugh-Jones, Arnon Milchan

Also In Contention

  1. Dream Scenario” (A24)
    Ari Aster, Tyler Campellone, Jacob Jaffke, Lars Knudsen
  2. Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
    Belén Atienza, Sandra Hermida
  3. Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
    Peter Del Vecho, Juan Pablo Reyes Lancaster-Jones
  4. The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Jamie Foxx, Jenette Kahn, Celine Rattray, Adam Richman, Robert Shriver, Trudie Styler, Datari Turner
  5. Nyad” (Netflix)
    Andrew Lazar, Teddy Schwarzman
  6. Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
    Cate Blanchett, Coco Francini, Christos Nikou, Andrew Upton, Lucas Wiesendanger
  7. Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
    Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales
  8. Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)
    Michel Franco, Duncan Montgomery, Eréndira Núñez Larios, Alex Orlovsky
  9. The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Ingo Fliess
  10. The Royal Hotel” (Neon)
    Iain Canning, Kath Shelper, Emile Sherman, Liz Watts

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories


About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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